The Cost of Zero Population Growth 

Submitted by: Lesley Etchegary-Nicholson

A major contributing factor to Owen Sound’s high property taxes is the lack of population growth over the past 30 years. We do have new people moving into the city – I moved here in the Spring of 2024. But we also have folks moving out of Owen Sound. They are moving to Georgian Bluffs, Meaford or heading towards Kitchener or Toronto for better job opportunities.

* source: StatsCan

With near-zero population growth, it’s hard to fathom how we have had the city’s budget grow by over 35% between 2016 and 2025. The squeeze on residents and business owners is real. City Hall spending increased by 35% and was paid for by the same size group of people = increased tax burden on those people.

In the ongoing, financially questionable study entitled Vision 2050, the consultant highlighted in her report that only 25% of people surveyed would recommend Owen Sound as a city to move to. So we have stagnant population growth for over 25 years, rising property taxes and a very negative outlook for the city by its residents.

Intangible Costs

There are other costs that are a direct result of near-zero population growth and a ballooning budget. There are the intangible costs like how differently we would feel if we were proud of our city and we were advocates for Owen Sound as a place to call home; the lack of a growing customer base for our local businesses and restaurants; a health cost to our residents by not having access to a family doctor. I could go on forever, but I think you get the idea.

There has been no shortage of residents letting City Hall know that our property taxes are astronomical compared to the stewardship, focus and fiduciary responsibility that we see happening in other cities. City Hall knows that our population hasn’t grown and that our downtown is in serious trouble. Yet they choose to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars new staff and “studies” where actual responses are withheld.

Opportunity Cost

In the financial and business world there is a term that is a consideration in every transaction. “Opportunity Cost”. Cambridge Dictionary defines Opportunity Cost as the value of the action that you do not choose, when choosing between two possible options. More accurately, it is the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.

Owen Sound City Hall is well-aware that our population has been stagnant for over 30 years. They are also aware of the 35% increase in the tax burden they have placed on the residents of Owen Sound. The business decision in front of them is very clear.

Instead of choosing to meaningfully address the lack of population growth, they have chosen instead to increase the City Hall administrative headcount and budgets. There is no dispute that they have failed to deliver on population growth, the StatsCan numbers speak for themselves. There is also no dispute that they have chosen to increase administrative headcount and budgets – which drives the tax burden higher. That’s a double-whammy!

In just the past 5 years, the City Manager’s Office budget grew from $255,010 in 2020 to a 2025 Budget figure of $758,754. That is a 195% increase in just 5 years! Over 90% of the City Manager’s Office Budget is salaries and Professional Development.

City Manager Total Expense Growth                            Source: Owen Sound 2025 Budget

Owen Sound City Hall knows this data, they vote for the increases every year. They also know how we stack up against other comparable cities. Jim Hutton provided them with an in-depth analysis back in 2023. Jim’s report, along with Jim’s story about the mayor and council’s reaction to it is available on RemakeCouncil.com.

Thorold is one of the cities in the comparative municipalities analysis in Jim’s report. Our data is sourced from Statistics Canada and the audited financial statements from the respective municipality, so information noted is as of 2021.

This is astonishing. Owen Sound residents and businesses pay over $10 million annually more than Thorold residents and businesses in property taxes!! For a city with fewer people!!

To grasp the huge difference between these two cities of similar size, consider that in 2006 the population of Thorold was 17,925 (with Owen Sound at 21,753). In almost 20 years, Thorold’s population grew by 33% while Owen Sound’s population barely moved.

Livability

Council commissioned another study in 2025, this one performed by Environics Analytics (EA). This study also compared Owen Sound to other municipalities, with a deeper dive into the “Livability” of its residents. Based on their methodology, they rank each aspect against an Index. Index Scores above 110 indicate a serious affordability issue.

Owen Sound residents on average, fall in the “Red Zone for Affordability” of 110 or greater on a number of the key aspects of where their income goes – Food, Household Operation and Health Care. Factors like Shelter and Transportation in Owen Sound rank almost 30 points worse than The Index. With over 42% of household income going to provide shelter and transportation, Owen Sounders are stretched to the breaking point.

Environics-Data-Housing-Spending-Owen_Sound.png

The Dialogue

Many a false step is made by standing still. The dialogue between the mayor and all council-members with the residents of Owen Sound has to change. We will no longer tolerate rising budgets and staff increases while our population stands still. We will no longer be kept out of the conversation while our city and its residents struggle.

RemakeCouncil.com. will be an integral part of this conversation. We will continue to provide a destination for all matters relating to the issues facing our next mayor and council. We have created space for residents to put forth ideas and comments. The website also contains a trove of data and analysis for anyone considering running in 2026.

It is time for Owen Sound to stop standing still.

The Gravy

In addition to spreading the tax burden across a larger population, the financial benefits of population growth continue to accrue, mainly to our businesses. In my case, moving here in 2024, I have contributed to the Owen Sound economy to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars. I have hired a contractor, electrician, fence co and HVAC. I am a new customer to dozens of local businesses – auto, salon, aesthetician, everything dog-related and the great shops and restaurants downtown. The injection of cash into the local economy that happens immediately when a new family moves here is the organic by-product of reaching the goal of reasonable population growth – the gravy.

The Silver Lining

The same business decision that has faced our city council for decades now faces us. We need population growth and reigning-in of City Hall expenses. We need a council that is committed, in writing, to achieving these goals. That’s it.

The municipal election is just a year away, with the submission deadline for candidates at the end of May. We ask that you vote for a candidate who has a position you agree with on this issue. We will keep you up to date with the candidates at RemakeCouncil.com.